November 4, 2010-Houston-

During the Institute for Regional Forecasting’s biannual economic and real estate forecast, Ted C. Jones, chief economist, Stewart Title, addressed many people’s questions regarding the future of the national and local economies and whether or not the national stimulus plan has really worked and if, indeed, the U.S. economy is really out of a recession.   

The presentation, “History May Not Repeat Itself, But it Certainly Does Rhyme” – Mark Twain, held at the Hyatt Regency Houston Hotel in downtown Houston, provided the newest economic statistics on  the global, national and local economies and included Jones’ interpretation of what they all mean, especially to Houstonians and the regional economy.

Jones questioned whether an economic recovery could be realized without adding jobs.  While he does see job growth in the future, he said it would likely be ‘tepid’ nationwide in the coming 18 to 24 months.  With statistics and an analysis of trends and econometric models, Jones dissected the current state of affairs of the global, national and local economies.  In contrasting Houston’s economic performance in the past decade, Jones noted that while the U.S. lost 1.9 million jobs since September 2000, Houston added 300,000 jobs. 

He indicated that the national economy basically is sputtering on fumes regarding job growth.  He noted that deficit spending at a national level is not sustainable.  The U.S. had $10.7 trillion of national debt (excluding Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid commitments) at the end of 2008 and is projected to grow an additional $10.53 trillion by 2020-and that assumes that there are no new Federal programs, that cap and trade does not pass, and that health care is essentially revenue neutral. 

The national economy remains on life support from government spending.  As the Federal Reserve System heads into a second round of quantitative easing (known as QE2), it shows little progress has been made by the multi-trillion dollar stimulus in the past 21 months.  Just as University of Houston economist Barton Smith stressed the need for an exit plan by both the Federal Reserve Bank and the U.S. government in his economic forecast last May, Jones reiterated that no true recovery can be proclaimed until all of these economies can start growing again without life support.